000 AXNT20 KNHC 170603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... OMAR WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 17/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR AT 17/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.8N 58.1W. OMAR IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 8N20W 9N28W 7N36W 9N49W 9N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA JUST WEST OF SIERRA LEONE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N101W MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER NEAR 28N100W...ABOUT 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA EAST OF 92W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE 25N101W MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 96W AND THE MEXICO COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS IN WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N87.5W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER HONDURAS/SOUTHERN BELIZE/GUATEMALA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 110 NM OFF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 18N WEST OF 80W INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N76W. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. DRY AIR IS NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N67W TO 15N77W TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 23N59W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 14N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE 32N12W 9N40W TROUGH AND THE 32N57W-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM OMAR IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 32N57W-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH AT THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N20W TO 16N36W TO 9N40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 48W. $$ MT