000 AXNT20 KNHC 160616 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OMAR IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR AT 16/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18.2N 63.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HURRICANE OMAR COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 65W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.3N 85.9W OR ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LIMON HONDURAS...AND ABOUT 185 MILES/300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 12N TO 14N WEST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST...AND IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 6N30W 9N44W 8N53W 10N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W...FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N100W MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER NEAR 29N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N92W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 23N94W BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE 31N61W-TO-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT EVENTUALLY REACHES 15N72W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE...NORTH AND WEST OF 20N67W 16N70W 17N80W 21N88W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE BASE OF THE 15N72W TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N73W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE LAST BULLETIN/ADVISORY HAS BEEN WRITTEN FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. THE LOW CENTER IS OVER LAND IN NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 12N TO 14N WEST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HURRICANE OMAR COVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N61W TO 23N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MONA PASSAGE...NORTH AND WEST OF 20N67W 16N70W 17N80W 21N88W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 50W NORTH OF 10N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N62W HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N55W HAS FORMED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N56W AND 21N60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE 25N19W TO 11N39W TROUGH...AND THE 31N61W CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N19W TO 15N32W TO 11N39W. $$ MT