000 AXNT20 KNHC 152359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OMAR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 65.2W AT 16/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 115 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 59W-68W. OMAR IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE NRN LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 85.6W AT 16/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING W-SW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 76W-91W. T.D. SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 17W-21W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N18W 8N21W 8N40W 8N44W 9N58W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 7W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 37W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. MOIST SLY WIND FLOW IS OVER THE GULF W OF 92W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN TEXAS SE TO NEAR 19N94W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 92W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 22N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE UPPER-LEVELS E OF 90W IN THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER- LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA S TO PANAMA AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. SIXTEEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC DIGGING SWD INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-85W. THIS TROUGH IS PLAYING A ROLE IN TRACKING OMAR TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE REACHING PART OF CENTRAL AND ERN CUBA AS WELL AS HISPANIOLA UNDER A NE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG THE ERN US SEABOARD EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE W ATLC WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE BRINGING DRY AIR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N61W ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 63W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W SW TO 21N64W. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF NANA...ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 45W-49W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N26W. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N49W IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY WEST OF 40W. $$ HUFFMAN