000 AXNT20 KNHC 151159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 14.9N 67.5W OR ABOUT 230 NM...425 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 230 MILES...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N AT THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA/BONAIRE/ CURACAO TO 16.5N BETWEEN 64.5W AND 70.5W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 16.0N 84.2W OR ABOUT 80 NM...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 245 MILES...460 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WEST AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N TO EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OF THE HONDURAS...SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 81W...EVEN IN HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN EL SALVADOR...AND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST SIDE OF COSTA RICA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20.5N 46.5W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF NANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N43W IS JUST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE AREAS WHERE NANA WAS WHILE NANA WAS A TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 8N30W 8N38W 8N48W 9N56W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N99W MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 95W/96W FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.D. SIXTEEN...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 COVERS THE WESTERN SECTION. HURRICANE OMAR COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N62W TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 18N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BEYOND 32N83W. THE WHOLE AREA OF THE TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE COVERED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WEST OF 74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N62W TO 24N56W BEYOND 32N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N54W 24N60W 21N66W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N18W...WEST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. DRY AIR IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM NORTH-SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND WITHIN 110 NM EAST-WEST OF THE CENTER. $$ MT