000 AXNT20 KNHC 150622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT 15/0300 UTC IS NEAR 14.3N 68.1W MOVING NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR 16.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 105 MILES/175 KM...EAST OF LIMN HONDURAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WEST OF 75W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N46W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF NANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N43W IS JUST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE AREAS WHERE NANA WAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS NEAR 18N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WERE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N42W... TO 18N42W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N15W 9N20W 9N40W 10N50W 12N59W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SIERRA LEONE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS SENEGAL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N99W MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N97W AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPINS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF T.D. SIXTEEN...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 26N90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N93W 27N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 COVERS THE WESTERN SECTION. HURRICANE OMAR COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N62W TO 25N68W TO 20N70W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING AROUND THE ENTIRE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 76W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 25N55W BEYOND 32N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N55W TO 21N66W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 19N EAST OF 50W. $$ MT