000 AXNT20 KNHC 121049 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 17N37W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 32W-36W. IN FACT...SATELLITE AND QUIK-SCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH THREE EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS MOVING W 10 KT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A SUBTLE INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N40W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N-22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...WAVE IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED TO THE W OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIK-SCAT DEPICTS COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W/91W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 90W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 88W-93W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N24W 10N39W 6N52W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 42W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 58W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 30N80W TO 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 96W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N... AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N79W 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 28N67W 24N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 28N51W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N14W 26N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N35W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E OF 45W. $$ FORMOSA