000 AXNT20 KNHC 120611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 15N36W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 34W-37W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS WEST. AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OCCURRING AROUND 1390 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING N 5-10 KT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE W OF THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 15N36W. A SUBTLE INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 14N-22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE...WAVE IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED TO THE W OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF EL SALVADOR FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 86W-91W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N24W 10N39W 6N52W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 23W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 27W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 29N80W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N97W 21N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N... AND FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 66W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 74W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N78W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 28N67W 24N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 66W-70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 29N48W 28N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 46W-48W. A 1016 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N13W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N35W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E OF 45W. $$ FORMOSA