000 AXNT20 KNHC 110000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 30W-38W. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WNW. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N46W. THE WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING AND AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 57W-63W AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 60W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 11N25W 10N34W 10N38W 9N43W 7N48W 10N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N36W TO 11N45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 30N79W AND EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 23N94W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 20N95W. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WATERS IS MAINLY INHIBITED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N. DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF REMAIN PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY AND FAIRLY LIGHT THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WRN CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 75W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W AND EXTENDS UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH SHALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ...IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 73W-82W. THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N79W IN THE FAR W ATLC. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND STRETCHES SE TO NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. A DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING SW INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE TWO. THIS STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING TO A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N49W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N60W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 61W-64W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 300 NM N OF 27N. $$ HUFFMAN