000 AXNT20 KNHC 101324 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008 ...RETRANSMITTED... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE AXIS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 29W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 39W AND THE AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 42W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 59W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 11N25W 10N35W 8N52W 11N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 44W-50W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION...ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE... IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 50W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. AS OF 09Z...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY AND EXTENDS TO 25N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N90W 24N94W TO 21N96W IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS INHIBITED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CARIBBEAN SEA... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 77W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ...IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTLINES OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. AS OF 09Z...THE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N78W AND STRETCHES TO THE SSE TO NEAR 25N75W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 27N-28N. A DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THIS STATIONARY FRONT AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPLITTING THE TWO. THIS BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N46W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N53W TO 25N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE EAST ATLC. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA IS GENERATING WINDS 20-25 KTS N OF 17N AND E OF 25W. IN THE TROPICS...A SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N34W. DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR 11N31W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. $$ WADDINGTON