000 AXNT20 KNHC 100555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 29W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE AXIS TO 35W FROM 7N-9N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO 64W SOUTH OF 15N...AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND SHOWS THE EXPECTED NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING OF A WAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0200 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N25W 9N35W 10N45W 13N58W.IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CENTERED NEAR 31N84W. AS OF 03Z...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N84W TO 24N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 24N93W AND TURNS SW-WARD TO 21N96W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE W ATLC...LEAVING A DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS COVER THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE / ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC ENTERS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN MOIST AIR SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 14N. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE W ATLC. AS OF 03Z...THIS STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED ALONG 31N78W 27N76W TO 24N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. A CLUSTER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST FROM 28N-30N W OF 78W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N46W AND STRETCHES SW-WARD ALONG 27N51W TO 24N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER AFRICA HAS GENERATED INCREASED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS N OF 22N AND E OF 60W. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N65W IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 64W-66W. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 46W-54W. $$ WADDINGTON