000 AXNT20 KNHC 091813 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N39W 10N38W 4N37.5W MOVING WEST 10 KT OR LESS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...AND FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH HAS ITS BASE NEAR 10N52W...WITH DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N60W 16N57W 18N55W...BECOMING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM THE COASTS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME NEAR 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE PANAMA COAST WITHIN A 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF 9N81.5W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 81.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH GUATEMALA AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 7N28W 9N37W 9N55W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W WITH A COLD FRONT... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DRIVING AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 29N50W 24N60W 23N69W...STATIONARY FROM 23N69W TO 26N76W...WARM FRONT 26N76W 30N79W...CURVING TO 31N81W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 25N87W AND 22N97W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 27N82W 25N90W 24N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 58W...AND NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...AND ACROSS FLORIDA SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W...AND SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W IN PARTS OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 18N78W 17N70W 17N60W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE 18N78W 17N60W LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W...AND EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE PANAMA COAST WITHIN A 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF 9N81.5W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 81.5W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 10N52W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AREAS OF MOISTURE THAT SLOWLY ARE ENCROACHING UPON IT FROM EITHER SIDE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO TO COASTAL MAURITANIA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 27N37W TO 24N46W. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED. WIND FORECASTS ACCORDING TO THE BEAUFORT SCALE RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 ARE IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ MT