000 AXNT20 KNHC 091030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS CENTERED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 24W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO 11N58W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-59W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH THE AN UPPER LOW. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 10N38W 8N45W 11N56W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 15N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N38W TO 6N42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE US EXTENDING INTO THE N GULF WATERS N OF 26W W OF OF 82W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/GEORGIA. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N85W TO 24N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 23N96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE NW OF THE FRONT...THUS CLEAR SKIES OVER THAT AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR ALL READY IN PLACE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL NICARAGUA EXTENDING AN AXIS E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO JUST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF14N W OF 80W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA COAST COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 73W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 50W-73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N63W TO 24N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER SE GEORGIA TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 57W AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 25N54W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N56W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 52W-57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N41W COVERING THE AREA S OF 28N INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN 33W-48W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 24W WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER W AFRICA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ACROSS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 12N S OF 15N TO NEAR 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W. $$ WALLACE