000 AXNT20 KNHC 090537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS CENTERED WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 28W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 35W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOWER LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...THUS NO DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N16W 6N32W 10N48W 91N62W. A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS N OF THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 15N36W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 33W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 22W039W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE US EXTENDING INTO THE N GULF WATERS N OF 27W OF 83W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER N ALABAMA. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 23N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE NW OF THE FRONT...THUS CLEAR SKIES N OF 27N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 92W AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NEAR 15N77W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOIST AIR ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 77W. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 50W-74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO 24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE TO THE 1011 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 31N50W TO 18N57W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE ENTIRE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 23N. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N40W COVERING THE AREA S OF 32N INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN 31W-47W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 19N E OF 22W WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER W AFRICA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N S OF 18N TO NEAR 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE