000 AXNT20 KNHC 071858 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008 CORRECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT T. S. MARCO TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO AT 07/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.9N 96.9W. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES/130 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AND ABOUT 70 MILES/110 KM NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ. MARCO IS T.D. THIRTEEN IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MARCO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER. MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THIS WAVE IS MIXED WITH ITCZ CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N41W 6N40W MOVING WEST 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALSO RIGHT ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 19N60W 17N65W 17N70W. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF JAMAICA. IT IS NOT EASY AT ALL TO PICK OUT PRECIPITATION JUST RELATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 16N84W CYCLONIC CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. ...THE ITCZ... 5N10W 6N20W 5N22W 8N35W 8N46W 9N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N13.5W...WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 5N15.5W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W... FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 20N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 16N37W 13N41W TO 10N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST IS DRIVING A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N61W 29N70W 28N80W...CROSSING FLORIDA AND ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N88W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W IN THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...PUSHING A CENTRAL TEXAS COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUST HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO MEXICO NEAR 23N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 16N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEST OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER REACHES 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 16N84W CYCLONIC CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 22N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ONE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N31W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 21N33W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N24W 16N28W 23N31W. ALL THIS IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N34W. A SECOND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 16N36W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. $$ MT