000 AXNT20 KNHC 061902 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 CORRECTING THE DATE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 06/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.2N 94.4W...OR ABOUT 115 MILES/185 KM EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. T.D. THIRTEEN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ... NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF 19N94W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR 23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 20N PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 70.5W AND 71W...AND FROM 12.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W OFF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ...THE ITCZ... 10N13W 8N20W 7N40W 7N47W 9N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5.5N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 28N105W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N70W TO 29N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 15N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SPREADING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IN ORDER TO COVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER REACHES TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND HISPANIOLA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 16N60W 17N70W 20N75W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW... BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TO 44N38W IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND SOUTHWARD TO 32N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 33N BETWEEN 51W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 58W/59W SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N TO 28N IS MOVING UNDER THE 23N60W CYCLONIC CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N13W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N20W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N27W TO 15N35W TO 14N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W NEAR THE 22N27W CYCLONIC CENTER. $$ MT