000 AXNT20 KNHC 061017 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SMALL MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 8N21W 11N33W 8N48W 12N63W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 11N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N19W...FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W...WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N36.5W...AND INT EH CARIBBEAN S OF 12N TO INLAND ALIGN THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND 66W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 44W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING ALL OF THE GULF WATERS BRINGING MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF S OF A LINE FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO MEXICO JUST S OF MATAMOROS. A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N90W TO NEAR 27N86W...THIS MAY STILL BECOME A SPECIAL FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 92W-94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 91W-95W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE E GULF FROM 25N-30N E OF 90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CONTINUE TO MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N80W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. MOIST OF TROPICAL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE CENTRAL AREA BETWEEN 65W-85W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE REGION ALONG 32N71W TO NEAR 29N78W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N70W DRAWING THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W N TO BEYOND 32N70W AND SUPPORTING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 63W-76W. A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N55W ALONG 25N58W TO 20N59W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SW OVER THE NE ATLC INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH 32N17W SW TO 15N37W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO BUILD N ALONG 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...THUS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 22W-26W. $$ WALLACE