000 AXNT20 KNHC 060508 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SMALL MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 28W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W-71W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 11N29W 9N40W 13N63W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM FROM 8N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 18W-24W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 20W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA/NE COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W-74W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE US ONLY EXTENDS TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING ALL OF THE GULF WATERS BRINGING MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE S AND E GULF S OF A LINE FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO MEXICO BETWEEN MATAMOROS AND TAMPICO. A 1008 MB LOW THAT HAS MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W...THIS MAY BECOME A SPECIAL FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 89W-94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 26N-29N E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ARE IN THE NW GULF FROM 26N92W TO 28N94W AS INDICATED BY MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NE GULF WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE SW COAST OF JAMAICA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. MOIST OF TROPICAL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA LEAVING MOST OF THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINGERING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W TO N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 28N79W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N73W DRAWING THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUPPORTING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 62W-76W. A LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N58W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO 22N58W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N52W 24N53W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 26N57W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 56W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SW OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N18W SW TO 18N33W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING TO BUILD N ALONG 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...THUS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 20W-25W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED FAR TO THE S BY THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPING THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. $$ WALLACE