000 AXNT20 KNHC 052336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND WAVE AXIS...WHICH COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN CIMSS WAVETRACK DERIVED LOW LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM W OF WAVE AXIS N OF 10N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WIND FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS N OF 12N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE STRUCTURE IS GENERALLY ILL-DEFINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY... THOUGH COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IS NOTED IN OBSERVED SURFACE WIND FIELD OVER E CARIBBEAN REGION NEAR WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 66W-68W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS S OF 13N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 11N29W 10N45W 13N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 44W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA ALONG 26N80W 25N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S MEXICO CLOSE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N91W MOVING W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W PRODUCING MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF N OF 23N AND W OF 90W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT FURTHER NW INTO THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 73W-76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 62W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 81W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN 70W-83W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA...N OF 5N. EXPECT...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 18N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N55W 21N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 52W-56W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO DUE TO DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N58W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N27W THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 20W-23W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA