000 AXNT20 KNHC 051029 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOWER LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 22W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOWER LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON UPPER AIR DATA AS THE WAVE PASSED THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 12N23W 8N40W 13N56W 12N63W ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 31W-50W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 41W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND NE TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BRING MOIST TROPICAL FLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N85W S TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND S OF 23N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN S OF 26N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS INLAND OVER N BELIZE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 81W AND PROVIDING MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND...THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK W CENTERED OVER SW HAITI COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 70W-81W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N65W DRAWING THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS W CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER A PORTION OF THE FAR W ATLC AND SUPPORTING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 60W-75W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THIS UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SW ATLC S OF 23N FROM 70W-80W INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SECOND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED E/W CENTERED NEAR 22N56W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N51W TO 22N54W AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 49W-58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W SW TO 23N30W WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING N ALONG 18W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS... THUS PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N26W EXTENDING W TO NEAR 13N53W KEEPING THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. $$ WALLACE