000
AXNT20 KNHC 050535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 
21W-25W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 52W/53W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 
10 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 53W-56W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 16N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 61W-66W. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 13N25W 8N38W 13N54W 
10N62W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N-11N 
BETWEEN 29W-45W WITH CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N15N BETWEEN 
12W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N W 
OF 88W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BRING MOIST TROPICAL FLOW ACROSS THE 
SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 18N96W. A DISSIPATING 1014 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 26N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER 
THE NE YUCATAN GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 
OF 26N E OF 84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
REMAINS RATHER CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE DRIER STABLE AIR 
REMAINS IN CONTROL. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING 1009 MB SURFACE IS INLAND OVER N BELIZE WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER THE NE YUCATAN TO THE TROUGH IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE BENEATH A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF W 
CUBA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND PROVIDING MOIST 
TROPICAL AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 81W TO OVER 
CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND...THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES 
TO TRACK W CENTERED OVER HAITI COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BETWEEN 65W-80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 68W-81W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC 
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W 
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N65W DRAWING THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS 
CUBA TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND SUPPORTING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS 
THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 60W-72W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THIS UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SW ATLC S OF 
23N FROM 65W-78W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A SECOND 
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO TRACK 
WESTWARD AS WELL CENTERED NEAR 22N55W GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 46W-58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE 
N EXTENDING FROM 33N50W TO 26N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE 
NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W SW TO 24N28W COVERING THE AREA 
N OF 24N FROM 35W TO OVER NW AFRICA. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC 
ANCHORED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N25W EXTENDING W TO 
NEAR 12N52W KEEPING THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. 

$$
WALLACE