000 AXNT20 KNHC 020602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-18N BETWEEN 33W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N30W TO 17N37W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 35W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 12N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION WITH THE INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE HAS BECOME TILTED NNE/SSW BY THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH NO CLEAR INDICATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N13W 7N27W 9N38W 8N50W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N26W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 13N27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N26W TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE/ LIBERIA BORDER...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-45W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N FROM 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS EXTENDING W TO 24N94W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MARK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PILING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH DEW POINTS AT OR BELOW 60 DEG ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INDUCED NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO A DISSIPATING 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N86W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BUT DOES NOT EXTEND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND DIPS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 72W BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 32N80W S OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MARK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W ALONG 30N73W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N65W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N58W AND S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N78W TO BEYOND 32N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BECOMING TILTED FROM THE NE TO SW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THAT AREA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N AND AN EQUALLY NARROW UPPER RIDGE JUST TO THE E ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N41W TO BEYOND 32N 38W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ELONGATED FROM 23N47W TO 13N54W CENTERED NEAR 18N51W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE E. AN ELONGATED E/W UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO COVERING THE NE ATLC FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NORTHWARD E OF 22W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 16N TO 45W DOMINATING THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE AFRICAN DUST THAT HAD SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAS BEGINNING TO DISPERSE WITH DENSE AFRICAN DUST REMAINING OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-20N E OF 30W. $$ WALLACE