000 AXNT20 KNHC 290004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 29/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE IS NEAR 44.0N 66.2W. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST NORTH OF YARMOUTH. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 26 KT. THE CENTER OF KYLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KYLE IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 23W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW INDICATES A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM JUST OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHERE AN 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS ALSO SEEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14W. LATEST VIS IMAGERY FOR THE DAY AND THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS SHOW THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 14N. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 17N42W 15N39W 12N39W WHILE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 17.5N36W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR BARBADOS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER THE WAVE WHICH IS PRODUCING SHEAR. THIS IS ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AS WELL AS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WEST OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 7N30W 9N41W 11N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH SOUTHERN SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A BROAD LOW PRES AREA...ANALYZED 1009 MB REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 28N85W. MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING BELIZE...THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...WESTERN CUBA...THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING DUE TO THE HEAVY SHOWERS THAT HAVE OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE NE REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA EARLY TUE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND NE MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO PROBABLY 20-25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE GULF REGION ON MONDAY. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES EXCEPT PUERTO RICO WHERE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER NICARAGUA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW AND ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N41W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC WEST OF 50W WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES INTO THE EASTERN ATLC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N33W 26N37W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC CENTERED ON A HIGH JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC HAS A TROUGH THAT CONNECTS THIS LOW WITH THE ONE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. FURTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ENVELOPS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS. $$ GR