000 AXNT20 KNHC 281119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE AT 28/1200 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N 69.4W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES/440 KM SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 480 MILES/780 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 41N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N65W 31N66W 28N70W 25N73W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED DISORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ... ALONG 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A JET STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 30 TO 45 KT...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N74W. THE FAST WINDS SPEEDS OF 60 KT TO 80 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N83W BEYOND 32N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON SIDE OF 32N72W 23N83W 17N89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE HISPANIOLA CYCLONIC CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N78W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N77W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 19N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE WATERS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC ACCOMPANIES AN 80W RIDGE...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF JAMAICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N47W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N31W TO 24N40W TO 23N51W. A 993 MB STORM CENTER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N42W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE FORECAST WITH THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE THAT MARKS THE FRONT...31N33W 25N40W 22N50W 23N56W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THE 51W/52W WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W. $$ MT