000 AXNT20 KNHC 280621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE AT 28/0600 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N 69.4W...OR ABOUT 275 MILES/440 KM SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 480 MILES/780 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 36N TO 37N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED DISORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N46W TO 16N55W TO 12N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 22N46W 12N61W TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N50W AND 11N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N24W 11N39W 10N49W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A JET STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS WITH 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 31N74W. THE FAST WINDS SPEEDS OF 50 KT TO 60 KT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON SIDE OF 31N74W 27N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND HAVE DISSIPATED INLAND DURING THE LAST FIVE TO SIX HOURS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE WATERS ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF JAMAICA...TO EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N75W...A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF THE 78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 23N78W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE EXTREME WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N87W JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HONDURAS NEAR 13N87W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N36W TO 32N44W IS ALONG 32N44W TO 26N47W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N32W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING THROUGH 31N32W 26N37W 23N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N46W TO 16N55W TO 12N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 22N46W 12N61W TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N50W AND 11N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W. $$ MT