000 AXNT20 KNHC 271806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 27/1800...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 550 MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. KYLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF KYLE'S CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS RELOCATED ALONG 39W BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND 14N39W. THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17.5N BETWEEN 35W-41W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ...AND MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 11N79W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM SE MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SE MEXICO APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE THE TWDEP. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N23W 11N32W 11N50W 9N63W. OUTSIDE FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 18W-22W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE VENEZUELA WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF BELIZE TODAY NEAR 18N88W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. ALOFT...UPPER NELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SAME TIME...THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTER OVER WEST AFRICA. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N32W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N41W. $$ GR