000 AXNT20 KNHC 271155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE AT 27/1200 UTC IS NEAR 31.2N 69.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 295 MILES/475 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. KYLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 33N TO 35N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS CUTTING ACROSS THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN DISORGANIZED INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS FOR KYLE TO BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SMALL HINT OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS NEAR 13N76W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND FROM THE GULF OF URABA TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STRETCHES FROM NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ONLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ... 13N17W 12N32W 10N44W 6N57W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN GUINEA TO SOUTHERN SENEGAL SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS NOW FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 26N97W 24N90W 27N80W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N76W...ORIGINATING WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N87W JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BELIZE. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 15N80W TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE IN ONE SMALL BURST WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 21N69W ABOUT 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS-T0-HONDURAS TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N45W TO A 20N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N51W. THE 44W/45W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N40W TO 27N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 27N40W TO 26N50W 26N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WEST OF 45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18W/19W THROUGH 32N TO 25N. $$ MT