000 AXNT20 KNHC 262359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 27.6N 68.7W OR ABOUT 400 MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING NNW NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR... EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 65W-69W. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 NM E OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PER THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMSS. AN INVERTED-V SHAPE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE RESEMBLES A BROADER INVERTED-V PATTERN THAN WITH THE WAVE ALONG 30W...WITH SOME COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE MOVEMENT OF CLOUD ELEMENTS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 37W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE POSITION CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MOST OF THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 69W-76W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER WAVE AXIS N OF 15N AXIS IS DEPICTING WEAK COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD THERE...WHERE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 86W-91W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 84W-94W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 11N20W 11N30W 8N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO 24N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING WLY FLOW. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA... THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 84W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO 29N75W TO TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N24W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 27N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N49W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 18N14W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 12N50W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. $$ FORMOSA