000 AXNT20 KNHC 261201 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.0N 68.7W OR ABOUT 435 NM SSW OF BERMUDA AT 26/1200 UTC MOVING NNW NEAR 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE CONTINUES EXPERIENCE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FLARE UP CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N63W TO 28N68W. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. THE NON-TROPICAL 995 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE DANGER GRAPHIC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 26W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 33W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE POSITION CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MOST OF THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NO LONGER EFFECTING THE ATLC BASIN. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N15W 14N26W 12N34W 13N43W 9N52W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SENEGAL AFRICA. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E US AND GULF N OF 25N EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N GULF FROM CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG 25N89W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N87W OVER S FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES INCLUDING S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN....AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE N GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE W ATLC FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR KEEPING THE AREA FROM 65W-85W REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC THIS MORNING IS T.S. KYLE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE DEEP LAYERED OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 72W DRAWING THE DRY STABLE AIR FROM THE N GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 74W AND INTO THE 995 MB LOW INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W THEN WEAKENING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT S OF 27N INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OVER T.S. KYLE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO TO 32N63W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THE WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT WAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S TO 17N BETWEEN 38W-58W WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 32N40W TO 29N49W TO 29N53W WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES NW TO BEYOND 32N57W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT E OF 53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 30W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N24W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N FROM 17W-24W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 42W ALONG 16N AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER N AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. $$ WALLACE/AC