000 AXNT20 KNHC 191109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N40W 8N46W 7N50W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. AT LEAST ONE STRONG CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP OF TRINIDAD NOW. SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N FROM HAITI TO VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. DISSIPATING SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ... ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AT 15W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N61W 22N75W...IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST AND IN SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 30N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 28N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 17N TO 27N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PRECIPITATION NOT RELATED TO THE 62W TROPICAL WAVE ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N43W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N23W TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT