000 AXNT20 KNHC 190618 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC WEST OF 50W...AND THROUGH 0545 UTC EAST OF 50W... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N51W 8N45W 11N39W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. AT LEAST 2.28 INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN GUADELOUPE FROM 18/0000 UTC UNTIL 19/0000 UTC WITH THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS IN THREE CELLS...ONE NEAR 11N72W...A SECOND CELL IS NEAR 9N73W...AND A THIRD CELL 7N74W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ONE RAIN CELL IS WITH A 15 TO 20 KT OF 19N90W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 10N18W 12N25W 10N35W 11N46W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. A 61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 18N ALSO IS HELPING TO SPIN UP SOME CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF IT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N12W 7N12W 10N10W FROM THE WATERS OFF LIBERIA ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THROUGH 32N76W TO 27N79W NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N83W IN THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N73W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N80W...WEAKENING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N94W...AND CONTINUING AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N94W TO 17N94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PART OF THE FRONT FROM 17N TO 27N ALONG 94W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS BETWEEN 88W AND THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTLINES. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS JUST WEST OF ANDROS ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS AND CROSSES CUBA TO 20N87W JUST SOUTH OF CUBA...TO 16N78W...TO 14N81W SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N90W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE FORMED IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME ARE DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 23N68W CYCLONIC CENTER BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N42W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 17N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N24W TO 19N23W. $$ MT