000 AXNT20 KNHC 171230 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED E OF 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PREDOMINATELY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 35W-45W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 64W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTS ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR 22N63W MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 92W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N30W 10N55W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N81W 27N84W 24N92W 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 94W-97W. 10-15 NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...WHICH DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 90W. EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N66W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N63W...30N55W...AND AT 25N42W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N46W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA