000 AXNT20 KNHC 151048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 46W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 8N46W 11N53W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N90W 27N93W 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N89W...WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 70W. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A 1010 MB LOW IS FURTHER EAST NEAR 33N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 62W-64W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH TO 25N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AROUND 25N47W...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 30N24W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N EAST OF 50W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ AC/MRF