000 AXNT20 KNHC 150525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N51W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 46W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 8N40W 11N52W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 21W-28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 44W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N89W...WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 71W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 70W. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A 1011 MB LOW IS FURTHER EAST NEAR 33N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 62W-64W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 36N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH TO 25N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AROUND 25N47W...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 30N24W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N EAST OF 50W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ AC/MRF