000
AXNT20 KNHC 141815
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE 
NEAR 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 8N23W 8N40W 10N50W TO TRINIDAD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE APALACHEE BAY OF 
FLORIDA TO A 26N86W NOT-WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 21N91W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST 
OF 94W. A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SAME 
FRONT THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IKE IN 
THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
30N93W 26N97W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING 
PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 19N TO 25N AND INLAND
TO 99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NORTHWARD BEYOND 
CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA TO WESTERN JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 
67W/68W FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 
72W INCLUDING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N26W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO 13N55W TO 7N58W IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH 
OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH 32N58W TO 
24N58W TO 21N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 
32N55W TO 27N61W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N29W.

$$
MT