000 AXNT20 KNHC 141034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.4N 92.5W AT 14/0900 UTC WHICH IS INLAND OVER N ARKANSAS MOVING NE AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. NOTHING REMAINS OF IKE IN THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 10N-20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 41W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-67W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER CLOUDS A WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 16N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N80W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 19N76W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N16W 10N20W 6N36W 9N50W 8N57W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM 23W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IKE HAS CLEARED THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO THE REMNANTS OF IKE OVER ARKANSAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF LINE FROM SW LOUISIANA W OF VERMILION BAY TO MEXICO N OF TAMPICO. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING GENERALLY STRONG EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE N GULF E OF 92W AND MODERATE/STRONG S UPPER WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 92W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE OBSERVED OVER THE AREA E OF 92W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC TO OVER NE FLORIDA. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N73W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW ATLC FROM E CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W DRIFTING NW. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N69W 26N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO NEAR 24N82W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN E ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR 28N27W THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW NEAR 24N47W CONTINUING SOUTHWARD INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR GUYANA. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N27W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SURINAME SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 15N48W SEPARATING THE THIS UPPER HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 63W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N49W AND A SECOND NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31W W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. $$ WALLACE