000 AXNT20 KNHC 140003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 94.8W AT 14/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA MOVING N-NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS ERN TEXAS/WRN LOUISIANA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 92W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 8N-21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 39W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW REGIME IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS NE VENEZUELA S OF 11N BETWEEN 62W-65W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 10N21W 8N24W 7N44W 8N50W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 23W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AS T.S. IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ERN TENNESSEE AND AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING GENERALLY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 93W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OBSERVED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF. S-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W AND EXTENDS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W AND EXTENDS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 76W-83W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 69W-77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS EVENING UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... INVERTED UPPER TROUGHING ENTERS THE FAR SW ATLC FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N70W TO 23N74W AND IS MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N46W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE ATLC N OF 22N FROM 40W EAST TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 15N30W AND IS GENERATING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW ALONG 43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 65W AND N OF 27N W OF 75W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A 1018 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N46W. $$ HUFFMAN