000 AXNT20 KNHC 130601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 94.7W AT 13/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL AREAS EXPECT TO THE S WHERE IT IS LIMITED. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 19W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AND NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 41W/42W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. MID LEVEL LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 16N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 38W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...STRAIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 55W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THE AREA LACKS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 6N27W 9N36W 10N56W 10N62W. A SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 25W-28W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 20W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 38W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON HURRICANE IKE THAT IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE ARE S AND E OF THE STORM COVERING MOST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS IN THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N W OF 88W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NE UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA. THE E GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SPREADING W AS IKE MOVES FURTHER INLAND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-83W WITH N UPPER WINDS W OF 83W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W S UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS COMBINED IS INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO JAMAICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 79W. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHES OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N69W TO A LARGER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E ALONG 28N70W ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N50W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE S IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N56W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N44W TO 22N55W AND ENHANCING THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 58W. A SECOND BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N32W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER NW AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AGAIN REIGNS OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W AND N OF 27N W OF 65W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. $$ WALLACE