000 AXNT20 KNHC 121203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/1200 UTC IS NEAR 26.9N 92.2W OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28 BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...IN THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO..AND TO 100W IN TEXAS AND MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 26N35W TO 22N45W 16N47W 10N50W. PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 26N35W 10N50W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO PROBABLY REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PASSING OVER CIRQUES ALSO. THIS WAVE CONTAINS SOME ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 14N FROM HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 6N23W 8N36W 9N50W 9N61W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF HAITI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 19N CROSSING PUERTO RICO TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO PROBABLY REACHING EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PASSING OVER CIRQUES ALSO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTAINS SOME ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 11N...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER INTO ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO THE PANAMA BORDER. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE PRECIPITATION NEAR 8N75W FROM SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN WARMING FOR THE LAST 5 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N72W IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND TO JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 17N74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N43W T0 32N45W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N53W...TO 27N68W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W TO JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 17N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONTAINS SOME REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 27N...AND IT IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N43W 16N47W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...IN AN AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 26N35W 10N50W TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 15N18W. $$ MT