000 AXNT20 KNHC 120618 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 AMENDED FOR THE 12/0600 UTC POSITION FOR HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/0600 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES/650 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...AND ABOUT 300 MILES/485 KM SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28 BETWEEN 87W AND 93W...AND AT THE END OF A RAINBAND IN WESTERN GUATEMALA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N91W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 31N IN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W POSSIBLY NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 25N35W 10N49W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 66W/67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. SOME OF THE CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 14N FROM NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N14W 8N27W 11N34W 10N40W 11N47W TO TRINIDAD AND NEARBY VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W... FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W...FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF HAITI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF 19N CROSSING PUERTO RICO TO THE VENEZUELA COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. SOME OF THE CELLS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST OF PUERTO RICO. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 11N...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA THROUGH COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM TO 40 NM RADIUS OF 7.5N76W JUST EAST OF THE BORDER WITH PANAMA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N72W IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 18N74W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N44W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N54W...TO 28N64W 26N70W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI NEAR 18N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SOUTH OF 28N. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 26N. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N45W TO 10N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W...IN AN AREA OF WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 25N35W 10N49W TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF 18N60W 13N53W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 18N18W. $$ MT