000 AXNT20 KNHC 120005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 12/0000 UTC IS NEAR 26.2N 89.9W OR ABOUT 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 NM. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 41W AND THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVER THAT PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NWD AND MAY REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY 150 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N30W 10N41W 9N54W 10N63W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 13W-16W...WHICH COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 9.5N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE GULF IS ON VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE...WHICH CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS IT MOVES TO THE WNW. IKE COULD APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT THE FIRST TROPICAL SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE U.S. AS A MAJOR HURRICANE SINCE WILMA IN 2005. NOAA BUOY 42001 NEAR THE CENTER OF IKE IS REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 959 MB. A FEEDER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IKE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF IKE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS BRINGING IN CLOUDINESS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 65W-67W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS A RESULT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 31W-40W. OTHERWISE...A LARGER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AZORES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC. $$ COHEN/RUBIO