000 AXNT20 KNHC 111802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N 88.8W OR ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES ...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE NOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. THE WIND FIELD HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM FROM THE CENTER AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 84W-91W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 32W-37W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-34W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 38W-48W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 62W-64W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N32W 8N50W 11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... IKE IS PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TOWARDS TEXAS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IKE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N101W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. EXPECT IKE TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THREATEN TEXAS WITH A LANDFALL FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEEDER BAND FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE COAST OF BELIZE ALONG 23N84W 18N87W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LINE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N AND E OF 67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W OUTSIDE OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-73W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER W AFRICA ALONG 11W MOVING TOWARDS THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 62W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH... THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 23N60W 17N62W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N22N. $$ FORMOSA