000 AXNT20 KNHC 111200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/1200 UTC IS NEAR 25.3N 88.0W OR ABOUT 575 MILES...920 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26.5 BETWEEN 85W AND 89W...AND ABOUT 60 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE BANCO CHINCHORRO TO 29N BETWEEN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA AND 95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED AT ALL TO THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N14W 9N31W 9N43W 8N55W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WEST AFRICA COAST FROM 5N TO 10N EAST OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 72W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N46W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N57W...TO 27N65W 24N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 21N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 12N59W 21N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N51W 18N55W 23N58W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF 18N60W 13N53W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 20N17W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 20N17W 27N30W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N45W TO 13N45W. THE 41W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. $$ MT