000 AXNT20 KNHC 110622 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/0600 UTC IS NEAR 25.0N 87.2W OR ABOUT 645 MILES/1040 KM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND ABOUT 305 MILES/495 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 28N BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND 89W. DISSIPATING AND POSSIBLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY BE NORTH OF THE LINE 18N73W 14N79W 15N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WEST OF 74W SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ACROSS CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA AND 94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N21W 11N37W 9N50W 9N54W 8N60W AT THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA COAST. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WEST AFRICA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W FROM THE LIBERIA COAST TO SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 90W AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 94W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 17N98W 23N102W 27N103W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 18N50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N64W 15N70W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N57W... TO 27N65W 23N69W TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N48W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N57W... TO 27N65W 23N69W TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER NEAR 19N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 67W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 12N TO 22N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N53W 20N55W 22N58W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 18N50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N64W 15N70W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WESTERN ALGERIA...ACROSS MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA TO 20N17W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 20N17W 27N30W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N45W TO 13N45W. THE 39W/40W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. $$ MT