000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 11/0000 UTC IS NEAR 24.7N 86.3W OR ABOUT 610 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 KT. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY ON THURSDAY... AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 NM. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 18Z MAP ALONG 25N SOUTH OF 14N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CIMMS TPW PRODUCT...AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM... AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS UPSTREAM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATES WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE SINCE SEPTEMBER 8. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 15N. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ...WITH CONVECTION MUCH MORE ISOLATED FURTHER NORTH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ AND THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE LINE...AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 10N28W 10N38W 9N47W 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH 250 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-47W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AS IT MOVES TO THE NW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IKE ARE IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS WESTERN FLORIDA. ON THE OTHER HAND...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER NE MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF. FOR MORE DETAILS ON IKE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF HURRICANE IKE IS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 80W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE EAST. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS PUSHING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE WEST. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED ALONG 57W FROM 13N-22N...WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 51W-66W...WHICH IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH. THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT TRAIL SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED AT 43N35W CONTINUES ANCHORING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES AND FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OF NOTE...TODAY MARKS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. THUS FAR...TEN TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FIVE OF THE STORMS BECAME HURRICANES AND THREE OF THESE REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BERTHA...GUSTAV AND IKE. ALL OF THEM EXCEPT BERTHA MADE LANDFALL. SO FAR THE U.S. HAS BEEN HIT BY TWO HURRICANES...DOLLY AND GUSTAV...AND THREE TROPICAL STORMS EDOUARD...FAY AND HANNA. HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER THIS WEEK...POSSIBLY AS THE FIRST MAJOR U.S. LANDFALL SINCE WILMA IN 2005. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA AND HAITI HAVE BEEN THE MOST AFFECTED COUNTRIES BY TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS SEASON. $$ COHEN/RUBIO