000 AXNT20 KNHC 101802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1800 UTC IS NEAR 24.2N 85.8W OR ABOUT OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW. IKE IS NOW A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. EXPECT IKE TO BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 15N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 36W-42W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 MN OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N40W 7N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 19W-21W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-34W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 26W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... IKE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF CUBA AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IKE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N104W PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT IKE TO CHURN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THREATEN TEXAS WITH A LANDFALL SATURDAY MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER W CUBA. A FEEDER BAND IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-86W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W OUTSIDE OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-67W. A SURFACE TROUGH... THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N55W 13N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N22N. $$ FORMOSA