000 AXNT20 KNHC 101159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 85.3W OR ABOUT 145 MILES/230 KM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVANA CUBA REPORTED 2.74 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT MAY BE RELATED TO THE WAVE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 8N33W 9N37W 8N48W 8N51W 7N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 31N EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N103W 25N101W BEYOND 31N98W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN HURRICANE IKE AND THE MEXICO RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW MOVES FROM 20N80W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE ALSO COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N50W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 29N59W TO A THIRD CENTER NEAR 25N68W TO 22N69W AND 20N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N9W IN MOROCCO TO 27N10W...THEN ALONG A SHEAR AXIS FROM 27N10W TO 24N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N32W TO ANOTHER CENTER NEAR 20N39W TO 15N42W TO 11N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 54W FROM 14N TO 20N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N49W 20N54W 21N59W. $$ MT