000 AXNT20 KNHC 092353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 10/0000 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 84.0W OR ABOUT 85 NM WEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N35W 8N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 43W-50W. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MUCH OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HURRICANE IKE IS EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE IKE TO CATEGORY THREE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE WAS INTERACTING WITH DRY NLY FLOW TO LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE IKE MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE PROXIMITY OF CABO LUCRECIA ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN CUBA...AND MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL TODAY IN WESTERN CUBA NEAR PUNTA LA CAPITANA PINAR RIO AROUND 1030 AM EDT. HURRICANE IKE THEN EMERGED INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MANUEL SANGUILY ALSO IN THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AROUND 500 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND GUST OF 118 MPH WAS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON AT PASO REAL IN PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE IKE IS THE SECOND OF TWO HURRICANES TO HAVE STRUCK CUBA IN THE PAST NINE DAYS...WHICH IS MAKES A NEW RECORD. IKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW AWAY FROM CUBA...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE COLOMBIA-PANAMA BORDER ALONG 76W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE IN AN ELONGATED REGION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. DEEP LAYER DRY EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE AS LOW AS 1004 MB DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IKE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE DRIFTING TO THE E OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS ALONG 51W FROM 15N-22N. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING HAS BEEN NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERALLY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IKE IS IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS AND SW ATLANTIC. $$ COHEN/RUBIO