000 AXNT20 KNHC 091806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 09/1500 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N 83.0W OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WNW 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FEEDER BANDS NOW EXTEND N TO S FLORIDA WITH AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 78W-85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL ON ALL QUADRANTS EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 30W-34W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN JUST N OF THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 76W SOUTH OF 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 7N40W 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-34W... 4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... IKE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IKE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER N MEXICO IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT IKE TO SPEND THE NEXT FOUR DAYS TRAVERSING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO N MEXICO OR S TEXAS AS A HURRICANE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N AND W OF 79W. SEE ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF IKE. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 64W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH... THE REMNANTS OF T.S.JOSEPHINE... IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 22N48W 16N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 49W-51W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N67W. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N39W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF 20N AND E OF 20W. $$ FORMOSA