000 AXNT20 KNHC 090605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 09/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.9N 81.5W JUST SOUTH OF THE ZAPATA PENINSULA AND ABOUT 95 MILES/ 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BETWEEN 77W AND 80W FROM 20N TO MAINLAND CUBA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 22N81W JUST OFF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A RAIN BAND THAT CURVES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS FLORIDA AS FAR AS 28N...AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 23N65W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 14N. AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA MAY BE RELATED TO OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 8N30W 7N47W 6N56W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 86W...MOVING INTO THE AREA OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GUATEMALA/YUCATAN PENINSULA BORDER IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 94W FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N97W 22N99W IN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W IN CENTRAL AMERICA. EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY IN EASTERN HONDURAS. THOSE HAVE DISSIPATED LEADING TO JUST ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN HONDURAS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 14N. AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA MAY BE RELATED TO OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES 15N65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N56W 20N61W TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. THE 1014 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS NEAR 18N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17N43W TO 22N37W BEYOND 32N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W 29N20W 25N24W 20N33W 16N39W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS AROUND ONE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N48W AND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N58W. $$ MT