000 AXNT20 KNHC 082359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 80.2W AT 09/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SRN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT... MOVING OVER WRN CUBA TOMORROW AND EMERGE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE WESTERN SIDE OF IKE REMAINS INTERACTING WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 74W-83W. ISOLATED BANDS OF SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 73W-85W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW- AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N8W 7N19W 8N39W 8N46W 9N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 10W-20W...AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF MAURITANIA...SENEGAL...AND GAMBIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE NEAR CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SE GULF...WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY E OF 90W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS AROUND CENTRAL CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH IKE. FURTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO RESULTING IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THIS FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...HAVE HELPED INITIATE A 50-NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 24N95W TO 27N97W. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF...WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF IKE ARE RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST NEAR THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES. CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND HURRICANE IKE... LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA...ARE AFFECTING THE NRN CARIBBEAN... MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE IKE IS BEING AIDED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71W WAS AFFECTING AREAS 120 NM WEST OF ARUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ABOUT 130 NM WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE...WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LIMITING CONVECTION BENEATH THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...ENHANCED SURFACE CONFLUENCE IS GENERATING THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 20W. A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N45W IS NOT GENERATING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION...AND IS CURRENTLY BEING ABSORBED BY A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N50W BENEATH THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST ATLC...THOUGH NO CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED GIVEN CONTINUING SURFACE DIFFLUENCE. $$ COHEN/HUFFMAN